Bitcoin’s narrowing price swings are making seasonal trends less pronounced, as its average monthly move fell from 14% between 2013 and 2016 to 9.6% since 2024. Institutional investment, ETF flows, and broader economic conditions are becoming more influential than the calendar. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, approved in January 2024, remain too recent for a conclusive assessment, although they recorded $515 million in net outflows in October. Despite two consecutive October losses, analysts said that October performance depends more on the broader market cycle and spot demand dynamics than on a fixed seasonal pattern.
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