Kevin Warsh delivered his inaugural Jackson Hole keynote as Federal Reserve Chair on August 28, 2026, roughly three months after assuming the role. He rejected optimistic inflation readings, noting that July’s PCE reading at 3.3% remains well above the Fed’s 2% target. Markets reacted immediately: the 2-year Treasury yield rose 9 basis points and the probability of a September rate hike climbed from roughly 40% to more than 50%. Warsh also criticized the Fed’s practice of signaling future rate moves, arguing that excessive forward guidance creates market fragility rather than stability.
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