According to Kalshi prediction market data, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at its September 2026 policy meeting has reached 57%. This potential 25 basis-point hike would bring the target rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, from the current 3.50% to 3.75%. Market pricing is based on prediction market activity and rate futures instruments, not on an official Fed decision. The Federal Open Market Committee will soon convene to discuss monetary policy amid mixed economic indicators. This 57% probability contrasts with a 43% chance of maintaining current rates, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about the Fed’s next move.
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