The US Federal Reserve raised its target interest rate by 25 basis points on September 16, bringing its target range to 3.75% to 4%, the first rate hike since July 2023. In a note by Zach Pandl, Grayscale describes this move as a mid-cycle adjustment, comparable to the isolated hike of 1997, and believes it should not significantly alter capital allocation in crypto. The Fed’s projections anticipate another rate hike to 4.1% before year-end, with an 88.2% probability according to CME FedWatch. The impact varies by asset: bitcoin, which pays no yield, becomes less attractive, while stablecoins and DeFi benefit from higher rates, with Circle generating $668 million in revenue in Q2 2026 from its remunerated reserves.
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