Prediction markets on Polymarket are assigning a 64 to 65% probability to another Federal Reserve rate hike at its October 27-28 meeting. This probability has risen sharply following comments from Fed Governor Michael Barr suggesting further monetary tightening may be needed to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Bitcoin reached an eight-month high above $86,000 earlier this month but retreated to $84,071 on September 25 as expectations for further tightening grew. The crypto market nevertheless showed notable resilience, with Bitcoin recording its first three-month winning streak since 2012.
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