Goldman Sachs estimates that the European Union’s emerging trade measures against China could affect roughly 27% of China’s annual exports to the bloc. The EU’s goods trade deficit with China widened to 98 billion euros in Q1 2026, the highest level since Q3 2022, while Chinese exports to the EU climbed approximately 16% during the first five months of 2026. Rather than blanket tariffs like those imposed by the US, Brussels is expected to deploy a more surgical approach targeting steel, machinery, and basic chemicals. Germany, with its deep export ties to China, has historically acted as a brake on aggressive trade measures, unlike France and southern European economies.
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