The euro fell to 1.1161 dollars on Monday October 5, its lowest level since May 2025, after four consecutive weeks of decline. The spread between French and German 10-year borrowing costs reached 140 basis points, or 1.4 percentage points, peaking above 150 basis points during the session, a record since late 2011. France’s risk premium surged 34 basis points in five sessions, the strongest weekly rise in 17 years according to LSEG, amid a budget deficit of 5.4% of GDP and debt at 119%. The ECB has a protection tool (TPI), but access conditions are strict and the French political calendar, with a presidential election six months away, makes budget promises barely credible to markets. The dollar gained 0.47% to 102.37, while bitcoin remained flat around $85,800, with the Fed on October 28 and the ECB the following day being the two major events of the week.
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