Bernstein analysts say crypto markets have not priced in a positive surprise from the Clarity Act, which would establish federal rules for digital assets and clarify SEC and CFTC responsibilities. Republicans revised the bill to incorporate 126 changes requested by Democrats, including provisions on ethics enforcement and community-bank deposit protections. Senator Cynthia Lummis urged Democrats to support the legislation following bipartisan negotiations. Probability estimates for enactment this year vary significantly: 25% according to TD Cowen versus 30%-40% according to Beacon Policy Advisors. A Senate procedural vote is scheduled for Tuesday.
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