Both CME and Polymarket forecast that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, with the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% since July. The two platforms diverge on confidence levels: CME-implied probabilities consistently exceed Polymarket’s figures across five FOMC meetings analyzed in 2025 and 2026. This gap narrows as meeting dates approach, suggesting the divergence reflects speed of information incorporation rather than fundamental disagreement. Institutional players appear confident that persistent inflationary pressures will keep the Fed in a restrictive posture through the near-term meeting cycle.
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