The CLARITY Act bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9, but TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg estimates a 75% chance of failure before reaching a final vote. The cloture vote is scheduled for September 15 at 2:15 p.m. ET, but Republicans, holding 53 seats, need at least seven Democrats or independents to reach the 60-vote threshold. Disputes over stablecoin yield, anti-money-laundering provisions, and regulatory authority remain unresolved. Market participants are closely watching the vote, with XRP ETF inflows already softening due to the legislative delay, while failure would confirm the bill’s drift toward TD Cowen’s base case of 75% failure odds.
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