Citigroup believes rising Democratic sweep odds on Polymarket could trigger a US bond market rally. Traders on the prediction platform have wagered nearly $10 million on the 2026 midterm elections, with $2.5 million specifically on a full Democratic sweep. With odds at 88% for the House and 51-53% for the Senate, a Democratic-controlled Congress paired with a Republican White House would create legislative gridlock historically beneficial for bonds. Citigroup expects reduced Treasury issuance and lower yields in this political deadlock scenario.
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