The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index for July 2026 on August 24, showing a reading of -0.08. This figure represents a decline from June’s +0.06, though it remains well below the recession alert threshold of a three-month moving average of -0.70 or lower. GDP growth forecasts for 2026 range between 1.5% and 2.2% according to analysts including J.P. Morgan and the Congressional Budget Office. The next release, covering August 2026 data, is scheduled for September 21.
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