Charles Schwab has calculated that Bitcoin would need to reach approximately $154,000 to match the returns offered by 30-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, which currently yield 2.98%. The brokerage giant based this analysis on a US Senate bill tied to a $5 billion market. This marks the first time a major traditional finance institution has incorporated Congressional crypto legislation as a quantifiable input to Bitcoin’s price model. The 2.98% real yield on 30-year TIPS represents a historically elevated hurdle for Bitcoin’s inflation-hedge narrative. The risk is that the legislative landscape may shift, as bills frequently die in committee without being passed.
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