The Iranian military has claimed, according to the IRNA news agency, that successive strikes have severely impacted enemy forces’ combat and logistics capabilities at a base in Bahrain. This base hosts the headquarters of the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet, a crucial hub for U.S. operations in the Middle East. Prediction markets show a 30.5% probability of Iran taking military action against a Gulf state before July 31, up from 24% twenty-four hours ago. This escalation occurs amid reciprocal missile and drone exchanges across the Gulf, involving several U.S.-linked sites.
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