The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating former Republican Representative Adam Kinzinger over trades made on prediction market platform Kalshi in December 2024 and January 2025. The transactions included bets on whether he would receive a presidential pardon from Joe Biden, which would violate Kalshi’s rules prohibiting users from betting on contracts in which they are direct participants. Biden granted Kinzinger a preemptive pardon in January 2025, in his final hours in office, along with other members of the committee that investigated the January 6 Capitol attack. The amounts involved were small: Kinzinger stated he made $823 on these transactions, placing around 25 bets in total. Kinzinger denies any wrongdoing, claiming he had no inside information and was no longer in office when he placed the bets.
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