California’s top 1% of earners contribute nearly half of the state’s income tax revenue, according to a report from Fortune. This concentration raises questions about California’s fiscal dependence on high-income taxpayers as voters consider Proposition 40. The proposal would impose a one-time 5% wealth tax on billionaires, while prediction markets currently assign a 22% probability to a yes vote. Polling from PPIC or Berkeley IGS, endorsements from major labor groups, candidate positions and campaign funding could influence public opinion and market expectations ahead of the November 3, 2026 election.
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