Brent crude hit $99.38 per barrel on September 3, representing an approximately 45% year-over-year increase. US-Iran military tensions, reignited by renewed American airstrikes, triggered a sharp drop in tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes. Daily vessel transits fell to six ships, down from the typical average of thirteen. Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE have also cut their own production, further tightening supply. Several analysts are now revising their forecasts upward and flagging increased odds of Federal Reserve tightening.
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