The U.S. Treasury plans to borrow $618 billion in privately held net marketable debt during the fourth quarter, $10 billion less than estimated in August but $24 billion more after adjusting for the opening cash balance. Its assumptions imply a $134 billion cash decline during the fourth quarter, followed by a $150 billion rebuild in the first quarter of 2027. The rebuild could reverse the Treasury account’s contribution to bank reserves and temporarily weigh on funding conditions. As of October 28, average bank reserves stood at $2.89 trillion, while the Treasury account balance reached $1.02 trillion. Issuance details and funding conditions, scheduled for November 4, remain necessary to determine whether this scenario could support demand for Bitcoin.
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