The EIA raised its forecast for the average US diesel price in 2027 from $4.49 to $5.03 per gallon, a 12% increase from its October estimate. The agency nevertheless expects diesel to decline from $5.25 in 2026, while Brent crude is forecast to average $86 per barrel in 2027, down from $97 this year. Damage to refineries in the Middle East and Russia is reducing petroleum-product exports and keeping refining margins elevated, although constraints are expected to ease after the beginning of 2027. Persistent fuel costs could slow inflation and delay monetary easing, potentially reducing investors’ risk appetite for Bitcoin, while recent declines in refined-product prices and the gradual normalization of margins provide a counterweight.
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