The International Energy Agency raised its fourth-quarter 2026 oil supply forecast by 3.3 million barrels a day, now projecting a quarterly surplus. This increase, rather than the expected surplus itself, followed a 2.3 million barrel-per-day rise in October as Gulf exports recovered faster than demand. Observed global inventories grew by 52 million barrels in October, but oil on the sea increased by 86 million barrels while land-based stocks fell to their lowest level since at least 2016. Diesel constraints and attacks on Russian energy infrastructure kept the market under pressure, with European diesel near $180 a barrel. Cheaper oil could reduce inflation, ease monetary policy and support Bitcoin, but only if refineries, land stocks and fuel exports recover.
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