Bitcoin was trading near $81,500, Glassnode’s estimated average acquisition cost for US spot ETFs, and $80,200, the average cost of the corporate treasuries it tracks. Net inflows into spot ETFs fell 95.6% in a day, dropping from $526.7 million on October 19 to $23.2 million on October 20, while 30-day average spot trading volume was less than a quarter of its level a year earlier. Friday’s preliminary PMI data and final University of Michigan inflation expectations will determine whether Bitcoin can test $85,000 to $87,500 or fall toward $79,600 and then $77,600. Higher inflation expectations, Treasury yields and the dollar, combined with ETF outflows, would increase downside pressure, whereas lower rates and renewed inflows would support the market. The Federal Reserve will decide on October 28, and 94 of 100 economists surveyed by Reuters expect it to maintain its 3.75% to 4.00% target range.
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