Bitcoin has fallen below 78,000 dollars at the start of September, after posting a 25 % gain in August, its best summer rally since 2017. September is historically the worst month for the leading cryptocurrency, with an average negative performance of approximately 3 % since 2013. The macroeconomic environment is complicating the situation: the Fed has adopted a hawkish tone, US 10-year Treasury yields have reached 4.784 %, and geopolitical tensions have pushed WTI crude to 88 dollars. Markets now anticipate a 66 % probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the FOMC meeting on September 16. However, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, corporate treasury demand, and strong on-chain activity represent structural supports that were absent during previous ‘Rektember’ episodes.
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