Bitcoin options priced in larger short-term moves ahead of central-bank decisions, with seven-day implied volatility reaching 36.5% on October 26, up from 32% a week earlier. Laevitas measured seven-day implied volatility at 36.1%, compared with realized volatility of 26.9%, a 9.2-point gap. The 30-day skew stood at -4.64 volatility points, almost identical to its -4.62 median and at the 49th annual percentile. Buyers holding through the announcements face time decay and the risk that implied volatility will fall, while a favorable Bitcoin move or further uncertainty could sustain the premium.
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