The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October has fallen to 19%, from about 51% a week earlier, after September payrolls rose by only 29,000. US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $2.6 billion in September and approximately $134 million across the first two trading sessions of October, according to Lacie Zhang, research lead at Bitget Wallet. The analyst believes these flows are not yet strong enough to force a breakout, with Bitcoin needing to confirm above $87,400 to target $90,000 and $93,000. BlackRock’s IBIT remains the dominant Bitcoin ETF with cumulative net inflows approaching $66 billion. Key risks identified include stronger-than-expected inflation, hawkish Fed guidance or a rise in long-term yields, which could push Bitcoin back toward $84,000.
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