Since May 14, 2026, Bitcoin has fallen roughly 10% while the IGV ETF has climbed about 12%, creating a 22-percentage-point gap, one of the sharpest divergences after a prolonged period of close alignment. The 20-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and IGV has dropped to 0.58, down from the tight alignment that characterized most of early 2026. IGV has rallied 36% since April 10, 2026, reclaiming its 200-day moving average, as investors reassessed the AI disruption narrative that had weighed on the software sector. Two historical precedents suggest such decoupling can precede a significant Bitcoin rally: in October 2023, Bitcoin rallied to $70,000, and in summer 2024, it pushed toward $100,000. For investors using Bitcoin as a macro hedge or store-of-value play, this decoupling is potentially good news in terms of portfolio diversification.
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