Bitwise forecasts that bitcoin will be worth $1,599,766 in 2036, when the asset was trading near $81,070 and had a market capitalization of about $1.6 trillion. Its base scenario primarily assumes that the combined gold-and-bitcoin market will grow from $31.1 trillion to $109.8 trillion, with bitcoin capturing a 25% share. This category would represent $27.45 trillion, or about 82% of the total valuation used by Bitwise. JPMorgan’s assumptions are considerably more conservative: its 10% compound annual return produces about $216,725, while its 55% annualized volatility exceeds the 27.8% used by Bitwise. Bitwise’s scenarios range from $130,686 to roughly $3.67 million, but a sensitivity analysis sharply lowers the projected price when either the market size or bitcoin’s share declines.
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