Bitcoin has officially crossed a critical threshold with its 365-day running return on investment now below 1, at approximately 0.514, indicating a loss of about 49% over one year. BTC is currently trading around $62,900, below its short-term moving averages between $63,400 and $63,900, while the 200-day moving average at roughly $71,800 is adding further pressure on the technical structure. The daily relative strength index (RSI) has dropped to approximately 42.5, signaling weakened momentum. This negative return level aligns with historical patterns similar to the bear markets of 2014-2015, 2018-2019, and 2022, but does not automatically signal a market bottom.
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