Bitwise projects a target price of $1.6 million for bitcoin in 2036, equivalent to a compound annual growth rate of 34.3% from an initial level of about $84,000. The US asset manager expects average volatility of 27.8%, close to that of large technology stocks, and a correlation of 0.43 with US equity markets. It therefore recommends allocating between 1% and 5% of an institutional portfolio to bitcoin, with more regular flows from halvings and institutional adoption expected to cushion downturns. The main risks include quantum computing, AI-accelerated mathematical breakthroughs and a US regulatory reversal. Bitwise manages more than $14 billion and distributes over 70 products to 5,500 private management teams and institutional investors, as well as 21 banks and brokerages.
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