Market research firm Bernstein forecasts Bitcoin to reclaim $125,000 by late 2026 before reaching approximately $300,000 at its cycle peak in 2029 under its base case, with a bull case of $500,000. The analysts note that Bitcoin gained 28% over the previous 10 days after falling about 50% from its October 2025 peak, which could signal the end of the current bear cycle. Institutional investors and corporate Bitcoin buyers have provided greater downside support, resulting in a maximum drawdown of 25% compared to 75% to 90% declines in previous cycles. Bernstein maintains its long-term BTC target of approximately $1 million by 2033, based on historical four-year cycles linked to halving events. Strategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder with 840,447 BTC, maintains its « Outperform » rating despite a reduced MSTR price target of $350.
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