Bank of America predicts that a prolonged conflict with Iran could push Brent crude oil prices above $150 per barrel. The bank raised its forecast from $83 to $95 per barrel for the second half of 2024 due to supply disruptions across the Middle East and Russia. Disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have peaked at roughly 14 million barrels per day and have recently averaged between 4 million and 8 million barrels per day compared with prewar levels. At least 350 million barrels have disappeared from global above-ground oil inventories since March. Francisco Blanch, commodity strategist at Bank of America, warned that the energy disruptions could morph into a structural shock as strategic and commercial inventories become progressively thinner.
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