Anthropic has published a report titled Economic Scenarios outlining three possible trajectories for the US economy by 2030 depending on the speed and reach of AI adoption. US GDP would reach $34.1 trillion in the modest scenario (+1.6%), $36.3 trillion in the substantial scenario (+8.3%), and $44.4 trillion in the extreme scenario (+32.4%) compared with a no-AI baseline. In the last case, knowledge-worker wages would fall by about 11.5%, their unemployment would climb to 17.9%, overall unemployment to 11.9%, and labor’s share of national income would drop from 60% to 45.2%. A survey of more than 10,000 US adults placed expectations close to the substantial scenario, with GDP rising around 10% and unemployment near 5%. The model excludes robotics and the automation of physical tasks, projections stop at 2030, and the analysis draws on Anthropic’s Economic Index series published since early 2025.
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