Polymarket prediction markets assign a 27.1% probability to Anthropic closing its first trading day with a market capitalization of $2 trillion to $2.25 trillion, while a separate contract reflects a 21.5% chance the company will announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029. A CNBC report values Anthropic at approximately $150 billion, well below the $2 trillion target, citing a leaked prospectus projecting 2025 revenues of $4.6 billion against a net loss of $42 billion. These odds come from separate prediction markets and do not represent unified forecasts or evidence of current insolvency. The contract prices reflect the gap between expectations for exceptional growth and doubts about long-term viability amid the massive costs of frontier AI model development.
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