Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder, estimates that upcoming IPOs for SpaceX, Anthropic and potentially OpenAI could flood the market with shares as lockup periods expire. He says roughly 8.6 billion SpaceX shares, nearly half of its current share count, could become tradable by June 2027, while early Anthropic investors could face dilution of up to 83%. In the short term, the resulting pressure on risk assets, credit and dollar liquidity could weigh on Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Over the longer term, Hayes expects an AI-driven financial crisis to prompt central banks to create liquidity and fuel another crypto rally, with Bitcoin’s 21 million coin cap providing an advantage over AI IPO dilution.
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