A prediction market tracked by Kalshi assigns a 36% probability to a Tesla and SpaceX merger by March 2027. This estimate reflects increased investor confidence, even though neither company has officially announced merger plans and Elon Musk has not publicly confirmed any. SpaceX, valued at approximately $2 trillion, would be the larger entity if a merger occurred, ahead of Tesla, which is valued at around $1.5 trillion. Any statements from Elon Musk, company filings, and regulatory and board approvals could reveal the merger’s progress.
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