According to Bloomberg Economics, the Federal Reserve could preserve its independence following the recent U.S. elections, with Democrats expected to limit Donald Trump’s influence. This stabilization could lead the Fed to adopt a more hawkish monetary policy stance. Prediction markets now assign a 78% probability to at least two rate hikes in 2026, while a single hike is priced at 21.5%. Political developments, statements by Jerome H. Powell, and upcoming inflation and employment data will be key factors shaping rate expectations.
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