Democrats are projected to have taken control of the House and Senate in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, notably by winning traditionally Republican states such as Kansas, Texas and South Carolina. The party is expected to hold a 13 percentage-point lead in the national House popular vote, which markets appear to interpret as evidence of growing momentum for Democrats. Prediction markets nevertheless remain highly uncertain about the size of that lead: one contract assigns a 67% probability to a margin of 12% to 14%, while another puts the chance of a margin of at least 16% at just 1.4%. Observers are awaiting official vote certifications, which could also indicate a decline in Donald Trump’s influence and shape future policy and market expectations.
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