Kalshi and Polymarket priced a Democratic sweep at 75% in the US midterm elections, as nearly $1.9 billion in election-related contracts traded across the two platforms. Traders gave Democrats a 93% to 94.5% chance of taking the House and a 75% to 75.5% chance of winning the Senate. In Ohio, Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, a critic of crypto, was nevertheless the favorite, while in Maine, pro-crypto candidate Troy Jackson was expected to defeat Republican Susan Collins. The forecasts came after prediction markets failed to anticipate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s victory in Brazil’s presidential runoff. Traders also implied a 35% probability of a US recession by the end of 2027 under a Democratic sweep, compared with 19% without one.
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