Historical estimates presented by IMF economist Marco Reuter show that cross-border dollar stablecoin activity rises by roughly 30% within six months of tighter capital restrictions and remains elevated for at least twelve months. A separate analysis detects no decline after controls are removed and rejects the hypothesis that their removal fully reverses the initial increase. The activity measure captures gross inflows, while a comparison covering 21 crisis countries estimates that stablecoin holdings there exceeded the control-group trajectory by $7.9 billion after one year. The findings suggest that dollar access through stablecoins can persist after restrictions are lifted, but they do not quantify net capital flight or establish the direct effect of these assets on domestic monetary control.
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