On Polymarket, traders have assigned Anthropic up to a 79% chance of exceeding Bitcoin’s market capitalization at least once before December 31, 2026, with about $209,000 in betting volume. Anthropic filed its S-1 registration with the SEC on October 26, 2026 ahead of a Nasdaq listing under the ticker ANT, with its debut valuation expected between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion. The company was last valued privately at $965 billion following a $65 billion Series H round in May 2026, and revenue reached $16.3 billion in the first half of 2026. Bitcoin’s market capitalization stands between $1.55 trillion and $1.61 trillion, while Aswath Damodaran’s estimate of roughly $1.475 trillion places Anthropic slightly below it. The IPO pricing, the stock’s initial performance and Bitcoin’s price will therefore determine the outcome of the bet.
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