Exxon CEO Darren Woods identified diesel as a critical supply constraint because refining capacity is insufficient relative to demand. U.S. distillate inventories are 12% below their five-year average, while global diesel availability has declined year over year. Refinery and export disruptions, including those linked to Middle East conflicts and restrictions by Russia and China, are contributing to the shortage. This could push oil prices higher and affect prediction markets tied to the U.S. elections, including markets on Senate victories.
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