The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision at 2 p.m. ET, followed by a press conference from Chair Kevin Warsh. Futures and prediction markets assign more than a 90% probability to a hold at the 3.75% to 4.00% target range after September’s unanimous hike, while 75% to 80% odds are assigned to another 0.25-point increase on December 8 and 9. Annual inflation stood at 3.7% in September, oil traded near $100 a barrel and employment grew by only 29,000 jobs, fueling expectations of higher rates and keeping the 10-year Treasury yield near 5%. That attractive return on assets considered relatively low risk can push capital away from Bitcoin and stocks, while leverage amplifies price swings around Fed decisions; roughly $481 million in crypto positions were liquidated within 24 hours of Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. The expected outcome is a hawkish hold, with any dissent favoring a hike making a December increase nearly certain.
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