Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs chief economist, expects AI-related capital expenditure to crest before stabilizing. US spending has reached roughly $600 billion, yet AI added only 0.1 percentage point to recent GDP growth, partly because much of the hardware is imported. According to Torsten Slok, Apollo chief economist, the technology has delivered no measurable financial payoff outside the tech sector: revenue per worker and profit margins are rising at Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla, but remain flat for the other 493 companies in the S&P 500. Goldman Sachs previously estimated that AI could add up to 1.5 percentage points to long-term US growth, but the two economists highlight concentration risk and a gap between spending and productivity gains.
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