Over twelve months, bitcoin’s annualized volatility reached 43 %, compared with a 64 % average over ten years and 81 % five years ago. According to Grayscale data as of October 6, approximately 95 companies in the S&P 500 index, representing 19 % of its members, showed higher volatility than BTC. The manager attributes this decline to increased market liquidity, the influx of institutional investors and the proliferation of regulated access points such as the spot bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024. Grayscale’s director of research, Zach Pandl, believes that bitcoin volatility no longer belongs in a distinct risk category, although he acknowledges that one year of data is insufficient to assess risk over a complete cycle. Deribit’s DVOL index, which forecasts volatility over 30 days, stands at 37.9, indicating an expected calmer month than the past year.
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