Goldman Sachs expects the American housing market to remain paralyzed through 2027, with just 3.9 million existing-home sales, 26% below 2019 levels. Over 95% of American borrowers currently pay below-market rates due to mass refinancing in 2020-2021, creating a lock-in effect that discourages homeowners from selling. Older millennials, ages 36 to 45, now hold the largest real estate wealth, with their total net worth rising from $3.94 trillion to $15.95 trillion between 2019 and 2024, while younger millennials face historically difficult homeownership access, with the median first-time buyer now age 40. This divide within the generation could widen with inheritance: Cerulli Associates projects millennials will inherit $46 trillion of the $105 trillion passing to heirs through 2048.
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