Wall Street is betting on earnings season and midterm elections to reverse a late-cycle bull market showing signs of fatigue. JPMorgan strategists identify the 7,500 level on the S&P 500 as the critical support, a break below which would signal a more serious correction than a routine pullback. S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow more than 20% year-over-year this quarter, providing a fundamental tailwind. Financial conditions are tightening through higher Treasury yields, wider corporate credit spreads and increased volatility. The index has been trading around its 50-day moving average at levels first reached 11 weeks ago, with rotations between AI-tech stocks and the rest of the market.
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