Credit default swap trading linked to companies including Oracle, SpaceX, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Broadcom and Nvidia averaged over $9 billion per week in September 2026, compared with under $2 billion in July. AI-related debt issuance has reached $466 billion during the same period, versus $101 billion a year earlier. CoreWeave, the data-center operator carrying nearly $50 billion in debt, shows a five-year CDS spread exceeding 1,100 basis points, implying a default probability of around 63-64%, up from approximately 30% a year ago. Oracle, Nvidia, Meta, Amazon and Alphabet have also seen their CDS spreads hit record highs. The market appears to be differentiating companies by balance-sheet strength rather than treating AI as a single bet.
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