Polymarket prediction markets now show an 87% likelihood of the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady at its October 27-28 meeting, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate increase dropping to 14%, down from nearly 50% a few weeks ago. This shift comes despite US consumer price index data showing inflation accelerating to 3.7% in September from 3.4% in August. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has declined to signal the committee’s next move, leaving traders particularly sensitive to incoming economic data.
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