IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva describes a global economy caught in a tug of war between an AI investment boom and a negative energy supply shock linked to Middle East conflicts, notably the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Spending on data centers and chips, which now accounts for over 10% of global goods trade, is fueling demand and inflationary pressure, spreading from the United States to Asian economies including Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, China, and India. The IMF estimates that successful AI adoption could add between 0.1 and 0.8 percentage points to global growth, with a central estimate of 0.5 points annually, equivalent over a decade to an economy the size of ASEAN. Georgieva warned about the lag between upfront costs and productivity gains, invoking Amara’s Law, as well as financial vulnerabilities tied to high leverage among firms investing in AI infrastructure. In October 2026, ahead of the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, she noted that global growth is projected at 3% for 2026 despite public debt nearing or exceeding 100% of GDP.
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