The Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed on October 9, 2026, to fold event contracts tied to sports, politics, culture and weather into its legal definition of swaps, placing prediction markets under federal oversight. The agency simultaneously issued an interim rule explicitly excluding casino-style gambling products and sports wagers from this definition. Several states are contesting the legality of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket under their gambling laws, while the CFTC claims exclusive federal jurisdiction over these markets. Conflicting rulings have been issued by different US circuit courts regarding federal preemption. The 30-day comment period will be decisive for the future of these platforms.
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