California could impose a one-time 5% tax on the net worth of billionaires residing in the state as of January 1, 2026, if Proposition 40 passes in the 2026 election. This measure, currently priced at a 32% probability of passage according to Kalshi prediction markets, would primarily fund healthcare, along with education and food assistance. Public polling shows narrow but consistent support, with 48% to 52% in favor versus 38% to 46% opposed. Markets interpret these conditions as indicating a challenging path for the measure, making passage highly uncertain.
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